What’s the deal with auction estimates?

If you’ve ever browsed an auction catalogue, you’ve probably noticed those little numbers next to every lot - the auction estimates. But what do they really mean? Are they just educated guesses, or is there more to it? 

What are Auction Estimates?

Auction estimates are a guide, not a guarantee. They’re the range (e.g., £300–£500) that gives bidders an idea of what an item might sell for. Estimates are carefully set by auction specialists who consider a variety of factors to land on that range.

How are they calculated?  

Auction houses don’t pull these numbers out of thin air, and there’s quite a science behind the process. Our team of specialists review a number of factors which will have an impact on the estimated price, including;

1. Market Value: What similar items have sold for in past auctions.  

2. Rarity: The rarer the item, the higher the estimate (usually).  

3. Condition: Is it mint, used, or somewhere in between? Condition can drastically affect value.  

4. Provenance: Who owned it, used it, or signed it? A solid backstory can boost an item’s value.  

5. Demand: What’s trending? An item from a popular athlete or artist will naturally attract more interest.  

 Are they always accurate?  

Not always! There are a few reasons an estimate might fall below or above the final hammer price. For example, if two or more bidders really want an item, the hammer price can soar way beyond the estimate.  Similarly, certain items may have unique appeal to an individual or group of fans. Sometimes, the emotional or historical significance of an item exceeds its expected market value. And not forgetting the market itself  -  Trends change, and demand for certain items can rise or fall unpredictably.

What do estimates mean for you?

Estimates are a really helpful guide, but they’re not a cap or a guarantee. Here’s how to use them wisely:  

- Do Your Research: If you’re serious about bidding, look up similar items and their sale prices.  

- Set a Budget: Use the estimate to decide your max bid—but don’t get carried away.  

- Think Big Picture: Sometimes, bidding a bit higher for a truly unique piece is worth it.

Estimates are part of what makes auctions exciting. They give you a ballpark figure, but the final hammer price? That’s where the magic happens.